A machine learning approach identifies distinct early-symptom cluster phenotypes which correlate with hospitalization, failure to return to activities, and prolonged COVID-19 symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Accurate COVID-19 prognosis is a critical aspect of acute and long-term clinical management. We identified discrete clusters of early stage-symptoms which may delineate groups with distinct disease severity phenotypes, including risk of developing long-term symptoms and associated inflammatory profiles. METHODS: 1,273 SARS-CoV-2 positive U.S. Military Health System beneficiaries with quantitative symptom scores (FLU-PRO Plus) were included in this analysis. We employed machine-learning approaches to identify symptom clusters and compared risk of hospitalization, long-term symptoms, as well as peak CRP and IL-6 concentrations. RESULTS: We identified three distinct clusters of participants based on their FLU-PRO Plus symptoms: cluster 1 ("Nasal cluster") is highly correlated with reporting runny/stuffy nose and sneezing, cluster 2 ("Sensory cluster") is highly correlated with loss of smell or taste, and cluster 3 ("Respiratory/Systemic cluster") is highly correlated with the respiratory (cough, trouble breathing, among others) and systemic (body aches, chills, among others) domain symptoms. Participants in the Respiratory/Systemic cluster were twice as likely as those in the Nasal cluster to have been hospitalized, and 1.5 times as likely to report that they had not returned-to-activities, which remained significant after controlling for confounding covariates (P < 0.01). Respiratory/Systemic and Sensory clusters were more likely to have symptoms at six-months post-symptom-onset (P = 0.03). We observed higher peak CRP and IL-6 in the Respiratory/Systemic cluster (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We identified early symptom profiles potentially associated with hospitalization, return-to-activities, long-term symptoms, and inflammatory profiles. These findings may assist in patient prognosis, including prediction of long COVID risk.

Persistent COVID-19 Symptoms at 6 Months After Onset and the Role of Vaccination Before or After SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Importance: Understanding the factors associated with post-COVID conditions is important for prevention. Objective: To identify characteristics associated with persistent post-COVID-19 symptoms and to describe post-COVID-19 medical encounters. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Epidemiology, Immunology, and Clinical Characteristics of Emerging Infectious Diseases With Pandemic Potential (EPICC) study implemented in the US military health system (MHS); MHS beneficiaries aged 18 years or older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from February 28, 2020, through December 31, 2021, were analyzed, with 1-year follow-up. Exposures: SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcomes analyzed included survey-reported symptoms through 6 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnosis categories reported in medical records 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection vs 3 months before infection. Results: More than half of the 1832 participants in these analyses were aged 18 to 44 years (1226 [66.9%]; mean [SD] age, 40.5 [13.7] years), were male (1118 [61.0%]), were unvaccinated at the time of their infection (1413 [77.1%]), and had no comorbidities (1290 [70.4%]). A total of 728 participants (39.7%) had illness that lasted 28 days or longer (28-89 days: 364 [19.9%]; ≥90 days: 364 [19.9%]). Participants who were unvaccinated prior to infection (risk ratio [RR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04-1.85), reported moderate (RR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.47-2.22) or severe (RR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.80-2.81) initial illnesses, had more hospitalized days (RR per each day of hospitalization, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.03), and had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 5 or greater (RR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.01-2.37) were more likely to report 28 or more days of symptoms. Among unvaccinated participants, postinfection vaccination was associated with a 41% lower risk of reporting symptoms at 6 months (RR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40-0.89). Participants had higher risk of pulmonary (RR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.40-2.84), diabetes (RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.00-2.13), neurological (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.64), and mental health-related medical encounters (RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.62) at 6 months after symptom onset than at baseline (before SARS-CoV-2 infection). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, more severe acute illness, a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and being unvaccinated were associated with a higher risk of reporting COVID-19 symptoms lasting 28 days or more. Participants with COVID-19 were more likely to seek medical care for diabetes, pulmonary, neurological, and mental health-related illness for at least 6 months after onset compared with their pre-COVID baseline health care use patterns. These findings may inform the risk-benefit ratio of COVID-19 vaccination policy.

Antigenic cartography of well-characterized human sera shows SARS-CoV-2 neutralization differences based on infection and vaccination history.

The rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants challenges vaccination strategies. Here, we collected 201 serum samples from persons with a single infection or multiple vaccine exposures, or both. We measured their neutralization titers against 15 natural variants and 7 variants with engineered spike mutations and analyzed antigenic diversity. Antigenic maps of primary infection sera showed that Omicron sublineages BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 are distinct from BA.1 and more similar to Beta/Gamma/Mu variants. Three mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations increased neutralization of BA.1 more than BA.4/BA.5 or BA.2.12.1. BA.1 post-vaccination infection elicited higher neutralization titers to all variants than three vaccinations alone, although with less neutralization to BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5. Those with BA.1 infection after two or three vaccinations had similar neutralization titer magnitude and antigenic recognition. Accounting for antigenic differences among variants when interpreting neutralization titers can aid the understanding of complex patterns in humoral immunity that informs the selection of future COVID-19 vaccine strains.

COVID-19 Patient-Reported Symptoms Using FLU-PRO Plus in a Cohort Study: Associations With Infecting Genotype, Vaccine History, and Return to Health.

Background: Patient-reported outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are an important measure of the full burden of coronavirus disease (COVID). Here, we examine how (1) infecting genotype and COVID-19 vaccination correlate with inFLUenza Patient-Reported Outcome (FLU-PRO) Plus score, including by symptom domains, and (2) FLU-PRO Plus scores predict return to usual activities and health. Methods: The epidemiology, immunology, and clinical characteristics of pandemic infectious diseases (EPICC) study was implemented to describe the short- and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a longitudinal, observational cohort. Multivariable linear regression models were run with FLU-PRO Plus scores as the outcome variable, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models evaluated effects of FLU-PRO Plus scores on return to usual health or activities. Results: Among the 764 participants included in this analysis, 63% were 18-44 years old, 40% were female, and 51% were White. Being fully vaccinated was associated with lower total scores (ß = -0.39; 95% CI, -0.57 to -0.21). The Delta variant was associated with higher total scores (ß = 0.25; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.45). Participants with higher FLU-PRO Plus scores were less likely to report returning to usual health and activities (health: hazard ratio [HR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.57; activities: HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.67). Fully vaccinated participants were more likely to report returning to usual activities (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.48). Conclusions: Full SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is associated with decreased severity of patient-reported symptoms across multiple domains, which in turn is likely to be associated with earlier return to usual activities. In addition, infection with the Delta variant was associated with higher FLU-PRO Plus scores than previous variants, even after controlling for vaccination status.

COVID-19 patient reported symptoms using FLU-PRO Plus in a cohort study: associations with infecting genotype, vaccine history, and return-to-health

Background Patient reported outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection are an important measure of the full burden of COVID. Here, we examine how 1) infecting genotype and COVID-19 vaccination correlate with FLU-PRO Plus score, including by symptom domains, and 2) FLU-PRO Plus scores predict return to usual activities and health. Methods The EPICC study was implemented to describe the short- and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a longitudinal, observational cohort. Multivariable linear regression models were run with FLU-PRO Plus scores as the outcome variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models evaluated effects of FLU-PRO Plus scores on return to usual health or activities. Results Among the 764 participants included in this analysis, 63% were 18-44 years old, 40% were female, and 51% were white. Being fully vaccinated was associated with lower total scores (β=-0.39 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.57, -0.21)). The Delta variant was associated with higher total scores (β=0.25 (95% CI 0.05, 0.45)). Participants with higher FLU-PRO Plus scores were less likely to report returning to usual health and activities (Health: hazard ratio (HR) 0.46 (95% CI 0.37, 0.57);Activities: HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.47, 0.67)). Fully vaccinated participants were more likely to report returning to usual activities (HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.04, 1.48)). Conclusions Full SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is associated with decreased severity of patient-reported symptoms across multiple domains, which in turn is likely to be associated with earlier return to usual activities. In addition, infection with the Delta variant was associated with higher FLU-PRO Plus scores than previous variants, even after controlling for vaccination status.

SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 variant is neutralized by vaccine booster-elicited serum but evades most convalescent serum and therapeutic antibodies.

The rapid spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) along with its high number of mutations in the spike gene has raised alarms about the effectiveness of current medical countermeasures. To address this concern, we measured the neutralization of the Omicron BA.1 variant pseudovirus by postvaccination serum samples after two and three immunizations with the Pfizer/BioNTech162b2 SARS-CoV-2 mRNA (Pfizer/BNT162b2) vaccine, convalescent serum samples from unvaccinated individuals infected by different variants, and clinical-stage therapeutic antibodies. We found that titers against the Omicron variant were low or undetectable after two immunizations and in many convalescent serum samples, regardless of the infecting variant. A booster vaccination increased titers more than 30-fold against Omicron to values comparable to those seen against the D614G variant after two immunizations. Neither age nor sex was associated with the differences in postvaccination antibody responses. We also evaluated 18 clinical-stage therapeutic antibody products and an antibody mimetic protein product obtained directly from the manufacturers. Five monoclonal antibodies, the antibody mimetic protein, three antibody cocktails, and two polyclonal antibody preparations retained measurable neutralization activity against Omicron with a varying degree of potency. Of these, only three retained potencies comparable to the D614G variant. Two therapeutic antibody cocktails in the tested panel that are authorized for emergency use in the United States did not neutralize Omicron. These findings underscore the potential benefit of mRNA vaccine boosters for protection against Omicron and the need for rapid development of antibody therapeutics that maintain potency against emerging variants.

Durability of Antibody Response and Frequency of SARS-CoV-2 Infection 6 Months after COVID-19 Vaccination in Healthcare Workers.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies decay but persist 6 months postvaccination; lower levels of neutralizing titers persist against Delta than wild-type virus. Of 227 vaccinated healthcare workers tested, only 2 experienced outpatient symptomatic breakthrough infections, despite 59/227 exhibiting serologic evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as presence of nucleocapsid protein antibodies.

Prospective Assessment of Symptoms to Evaluate Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in a Cohort of Health Care Workers.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is unclear and may be influenced by how symptoms are evaluated. In this study, we sought to determine the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prospective cohort of health care workers (HCWs). METHODS: A prospective cohort of HCWs, confirmed negative for SARS-CoV-2 exposure upon enrollment, were evaluated for SARS-CoV-2 infection by monthly analysis of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies as well as referral for polymerase chain reaction testing whenever they exhibited symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Participants completed the standardized and validated FLU-PRO Plus symptom questionnaire scoring viral respiratory disease symptom intensity and frequency at least twice monthly during baseline periods of health and each day they had any symptoms that were different from their baseline. RESULTS: Two hundred sixty-three participants were enrolled between August 25 and December 31, 2020. Through February 28, 2021, 12 participants were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptom analysis demonstrated that all 12 had at least mild symptoms of COVID-19, compared with baseline health, near or at time of infection. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated, immunocompetent adults is less common than previously reported. While infectious inoculum doses and patient factors may have played a role in the clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infections in this cohort, we suspect that the high rate of symptomatic disease was due primarily to participant attentiveness to symptoms and collection of symptoms in a standardized, prospective fashion. These results have implications for studies that estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and for public health measures to control the spread of this virus.

Anatomical Site, Viral Ribonucleic Acid Abundance, and Time of Sampling Correlate With Molecular Detection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 During Infection.

BACKGROUND: Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs are the standard for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. If less invasive alternatives to NP swabs (eg, oropharyngeal [OP] or nasal swabs [NS]) are comparably sensitive, the use of these techniques may be preferable in terms of comfort, convenience, and safety. METHODS: This study compared the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in swab samples collected on the same day among participants with at least one positive PCR test. RESULTS: Overall, 755 participants had at least one set of paired swabs. Concordance between NP and other swab types was 75% (NS), 72% (OP), 54% (rectal swabs [RS]), and 78% (NS/OP combined). Kappa values were moderate for the NS, OP, and NS/OP comparisons (0.50, 0.45, and 0.54, respectively). Highest sensitivity relative to NP (0.87) was observed with a combination of NS/OP tests (positive if either NS or OP was positive). Sensitivity of the non-NP swab types was highest in the first week postsymptom onset and decreased thereafter. Similarly, virus RNA quantity was highest in the NP swabs as compared with NS, OP, and RS within two weeks postsymptom onset. OP and NS performance decreased as virus RNA quantity decreased. No differences were noted between NS specimens collected at home or in clinic. CONCLUSIONS: NP swabs detected more SARS-CoV-2 cases than non-NP swabs, and the sensitivity of the non-NP swabs decreased with time postsymptom onset. While other swabs may be simpler to collect, NP swabs present the best chance of detecting SARS-CoV-2 RNA, which is essential for clinical care as well as genomic surveillance.

Adverse Effects and Antibody Titers in Response to the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine in a Prospective Study of Healthcare Workers.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between postvaccination symptoms and strength of antibody responses is unclear. The goal of this study was to determine whether adverse effects caused by vaccination with the Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccine are associated with the magnitude of vaccine-induced antibody levels. METHODS: We conducted a single-center, observational cohort study consisting of generally healthy adult participants that were not severely immunocompromised, had no history of coronavirus disease 2019, and were seronegative for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein before vaccination. Severity of vaccine-associated symptoms was obtained through participant-completed questionnaires. Testing for immunoglobulin G antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and receptor-binding domain was conducted using microsphere-based multiplex immunoassays performed on serum samples collected at monthly visits. Neutralizing antibody titers were determined by microneutralization assays. RESULTS: Two hundred six participants were evaluated (69.4% female, median age 41.5 years old). We found no correlation between vaccine-associated symptom severity scores and vaccine-induced antibody titers 1 month after vaccination. We also observed that (1) postvaccination symptoms were inversely correlated with age and weight and more common in women, (2) systemic symptoms were more frequent after the second vaccination, (3) high symptom scores after first vaccination were predictive of high symptom scores after second vaccination, and (4) older age was associated with lower titers. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of postvaccination symptoms after receipt of the BNT162b2 vaccine does not equate to lack of vaccine-induced antibodies 1 month after vaccination.

COVID-19 Outcomes Among US Military Health System Beneficiaries Include Complications Across Multiple Organ Systems and Substantial Functional Impairment.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated clinical outcomes, functional burden, and complications 1 month after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in a prospective US Military Health System (MHS) cohort of active duty, retiree, and dependent populations using serial patient-reported outcome surveys and electronic medical record (EMR) review. METHODS: MHS beneficiaries presenting at 9 sites across the United States with a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test, a COVID-19-like illness, or a high-risk SARS-CoV-2 exposure were eligible for enrollment. Medical history and clinical outcomes were collected through structured interviews and International Classification of Diseases-based EMR review. Risk factors associated with hospitalization were determined by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 1202 participants were enrolled. There were 1070 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and 132 SARS-CoV-2-negative participants. In the first month post-symptom onset among the SARS-CoV-2-positive cases, there were 212 hospitalizations, 80% requiring oxygen, 20 ICU admissions, and 10 deaths. Risk factors for COVID-19-associated hospitalization included race (increased for Asian, Black, and Hispanic compared with non-Hispanic White), age (age 45-64 and 65+ compared with <45), and obesity (BMI≥30 compared with BMI<30). Over 2% of survey respondents reported the need for supplemental oxygen, and 31% had not returned to normal daily activities at 1 month post-symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, reporting Asian, Black, or Hispanic race/ethnicity, and obesity are associated with SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization. A proportion of acute SARS-CoV-2 infections require long-term oxygen therapy; the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on short-term functional status was substantial. A significant number of MHS beneficiaries had not yet returned to normal activities by 1 month.

Performance of the inFLUenza Patient-Reported Outcome Plus (FLU-PRO Plus) Instrument in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: The inFLUenza Patient-Reported Outcome Plus (FLU-PRO Plus) is a patient-reported outcome data collection instrument assessing symptoms of viral respiratory tract infections across 8 body systems. This study evaluated the measurement properties of FLU-PRO Plus in a study enrolling individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Data from a prospective cohort study (EPICC) in US Military Health System beneficiaries evaluated for COVID-19 was utilized. Adults with symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with FLU-PRO Plus survey information within 1 week of symptom onset were included. Reliability of FLU-PRO Plus was estimated using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC; 2 days' reproducibility). Known-groups validity was assessed using patient global assessment (PGA) of disease severity. Patient report of return to usual health was used to assess responsiveness (day 1-6/7). RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-six SARS-CoV-2-positive participants were included in the analysis. Reliability among those who reported no change in their symptoms from one day to the next was high for most domains (ICC range, 0.68-0.94 for day 1 to day 2). Construct validity was demonstrated by moderate to high correlation between the PGA rating of disease severity and domain and total scores (eg, total scores correlation: 0.69 [influenza-like illness severity], 0.69 [interference in daily activities], and -0.58 [physical health]). In addition, FLU-PRO Plus demonstrated good known-groups validity, with increasing domain and total scores observed with increasing severity ratings. CONCLUSIONS: FLU-PRO Plus performs well in measuring signs and symptoms in SARS-CoV-2 infection with excellent construct validity, known-groups validity, and responsiveness to change. Standardized data collection instruments facilitate meta-analyses, vaccine effectiveness studies, and other COVID-19 research activities.